Chief economist Mark Zandi exclusively told Fortune that 22 states are contracting and many lower- and middle-income households are “hanging on by their fingertips,” struggling with debt and slowing wage growth despite steady employment. Private data during the federal shutdown shows weakening consumer confidence, particularly among those earning under $35,000. Zandi warned that if economic softness spreads from smaller, manufacturing-heavy states to giants like California or New York, the national economy could tip into recession.
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